OSCAR PREDICTIONS, MURIEL DECLARATIONS & PEET GELDERBLOM'S "PRETTY MESSED UP"
So, going into the final stretch before the Oscars are announced,
I have a question: if you like—no, love
this year’s front-running La La Land,
does that make you a bad person, or just deluded? Don’t laugh—there may be
people at your own Oscar party who will have already come to their own
conclusion on that conundrum. This year’s presumptive favorite is so
presumptive that people are talking about the film as if it had already won and
are projecting as to whether it’s an enduring classic or just another meh-fest
to be thrown on the mediocrity pile along with Crash, Chicago, Argo, The Artist and about half of the rest of
Oscar’s Best Picture winners since the Academy started handing out awards at
the Hollywood Roosevelt Hotel in 1929. It is hard to deny, no matter how much
you like or dislike La La Land, that
it is precisely the sort of movie Oscar, and apparently every other
award-doling group out there, loves to overrate, which is precisely what has
happened and why that backlash, which may have been in its infancy before the
movie was even released theatrically in the US this past December, seems so
firmly entrenched.
But if anything, especially in our age of social media
instant gratification, and instant denunciation, the Oscars are designed to be
disagreed with, argued about, denigrated and celebrated in roughly equal
measure. Most of us who rail on about their failure to represent the actual audience
that pays to see movies, and their failure to uphold standards of artistic
achievement in the face of outrageous commerce and the sometimes even more
outrageous whims of the folks who actually cast votes, will still tune in and get excited, even at
a slightly further distance that we may have used to, to root for the movies
we’re convinced deserve the honor (whatever we’ve decided that honor might
mean) over the other candidates.
So, in these final hours, before the first envelope is opened and before everyone on stage gets a chance to give the alt-right more reasons to insist that “Hollywood” represents everything that is wrong and weird and not “great” about America, I’m gonna play the Oscar game. I will reveal my predictions for the winners in several major categories, as well as the movie I believe should take home the prize (from those nominated), but not before reminding you that in the 30-some year’s I’ve run my annual office Oscar pool I have won precisely twice, and both of those wins, if I recall correctly, were in years when the level of difficulty in choosing sure things was low. Kinda like this year. So maybe if you throw in with my Sybil the Soothsayer-esque picks and fill out your own Oscar ballot per my advice, you’ll do well on Sunday night. Certainly, as well as I will. It’s up to you.
My official stand is this: I don’t follow the trades religiously this time of year and honestly have no idea what the prevailing wisdom of the “experts” might be, so I figure my gut is as good as anyone’s. (Well, maybe not the rock-hard abs of Chris Evans, but you know what I mean.) So, take the picks of this interested outside observer for what they are worth, which may be close to nothing. As the old pinball machines used to say, this column, much like the Oscars themselves, is For Amusement Only.
BEST PICTURE
All the wisdom in Hollywood says La La Land is your winner. I cannot disagree. My prediction: La La Land. My wish: Moonlight, although I would belt a tune by the light of said moon if Hell or High Water pulled off what would be the most ridiculously unlikely upset in Oscar history.
BEST ACTRESS
Again, to bet against Emma Stone is toss your shekels to the
wind. My prediction: Emma Stone. My
wish: I have loved Emma Sone since Easy A
and I will be very happy when she wins, but I would be even happier if Isabelle Huppert could emerge
victorious for what I do believe is the female performance of the year in Elle.
BEST ACTOR
It’s undersized Casey Affleck versus oversized Denzel
Washington here. This is the only acting category with some measure of
suspense, but I think a combination of residual ambivalence about Affleck’s
alleged off-screen behavior and Washington’s surprise win at the SAG awards
bodes well for interior pain expressed in the bombastic mode this year. My prediction:
Denzel Washington. My wish: Casey Affleck.
BEST SUPPORTING
ACTRESS
Slam dunk for Viola Davis, though anyone who has seen Fences should be able to see this is a
lead performance. Savvy positioning in the Supporting Actress category will
secure this heavy hitter her first Oscar. My prediction: Viola Davis. My wish: Naomie
Harris.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
His impassioned speech at the SAG Awards, speaking as an
artist of the Muslim faith, endeared Mahershala Ali to liberal-minded Academy
voters as much as his actual work in Moonlight
did, and they’ll want him to speak his mind again on the Dolby Theater stage
Sunday night. My prediction: Mahershala
Ali. My wish: Mahershala Ali,
though seeing Jeff Bridges take the stage would be a nice surprise too.
BEST DIRECTOR
Two strong choices from independent films to choose from
here, but the pull of the La La Land tide
is a formidable one. My prediction: Damien
Chazelle. My wish: Barry Jenkins.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Progressive politics couched in a surprisingly engaging
story is a hard combination to beat. My prediction: Zootopia. My wish: Kubo
and the Two Strings.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
FEATURE
When a solid humanitarian piece like Life, Animated, which might have won in a different year, is your weakest candidate, you know you’re
looking at a real bounty in all the rest. Still, the historical scope and
insight of Ezra Edelman’s singular achievement should dominate the voters’
fields of vision. My prediction and my wish: OJ: Made in America.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
My prediction and my pick: Moonlight.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
My prediction: La La Land. My wish: Allied.
BEST FILM EDITING
My prediction: La La Land. My wish: Hell or High Water.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE
FEATURE
My prediction and my wish: The Salesman.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR
My prediction: A Man Called Ove. My wish: Star
Trek: Beyond
BEST MUSICAL SCORE
My prediction and my wish: La La Land
BEST PRODUCTION
DESIGN
My prediction: La La Land. My wish: Hail,
Caesar!
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
My prediction: “How
Far I’ll Go” (Moana).
My wish: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” (La La Land).
My wish: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” (La La Land).
BEST ADAPTED
SCREENPLAY
My prediction and my wish: Moonlight.
BEST ORIGNAL
SCREENPLAY
My prediction: Manchester by the Sea. My wish: Hell
or High Water.
BEST SOUND EDITING
My prediction: La La Land. My wish: Arrival.
BEST SOUND MIXING
My prediction: Hacksaw Ridge. My wish: Arrival.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
My prediction: The Jungle Book. My wish: Doctor
Strange.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
SHORT SUBJECT
My prediction: Extremis.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
SUBJECT
My prediction: Piper.
BEST LIVE-ACTION
SHORT SUBJECT
My prediction: Sing.
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And now a word about the awards that really matter. Winners
for the 10th annual Muriel
Awards, given by a group of
writers and cinephiles among whose member I have been since their start back in
2006 (and named after award cofounder Paul Clark’s beloved guinea pig), began
rolling out this past week, in direct competition with the big gold guy, and
will continue to do so into next week. I’ve got a couple of pieces coming up
for the Muriels, and don’t for a minute think my legendary humility will
somehow allow me to somehow forget to alert you when those are posted. But in
the meantime, I want to let you know, in the face of all the overwhelming
Academy Awards hype and talk of a La La
Land sweep, that there still are independently minded awards groups out
there who have a mind and an eye toward films that might not be top of Oscar’s
mind, and the Muriels constitutes one of the most independent of them all.
Here’s what they have already awarded for 2016:
Best Supporting Performance (Male): Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Best Supporting Performance (Female): Lily Gladstone, Certain Women
Best Ensemble Performance: Moonlight
10th Anniversary Award (Best Film of 2006): Children
of Men
Best Body of Work: Isabelle Huppert
Best Music: Mica Levi, Jackie
25th Anniversary Award (Best Film of 1991): The
Silence of the Lambs
Best Cinematic Breakthrough: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Stay tuned all this week at Muriels headquarters, Our Science is Too Tight, as more
awards will be revealed, including the countdown to best film of 2016.
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And finally, if all this award talk is getting you down and
you need some stimulating creative distraction, consider tuning in to director
Peet Gelderblom’s video essay series, Pretty
Messed Up, whose six-episode run at Film Scalpel concludes this coming week
in an unusually epic fashion. Gelderblom is the fella who earlier pitted Alfred
Hitchcock and Brian De Palma against each other in a Split-Screen Bloodbath and whose director's cut of Raising Cain was approved by De Palma himself and included on
the recent Blu-ray of the film. In Pretty
Messed Up, Gelderblom specializes in teasing out the subversive and commentative
qualities of the mash-up to reveal specific insights and unusual personalities
within the elements of the films themselves. Episode #3, "Heading Toward Certain Death," combines audio from Werner Herzog’s acclaimed Antarctic documentary Encounters at the End of the World with
the animated comedy Happy Feet, about
a flock of musically inclined penguins which, as Film Scalpel put it, results
in “a surrealist clash of heavy-handed narration
and lighthearted visuals... a clash that, for one thing, reveals the appetite
for Hollywoodian hyperboles in Herzog’s dramatic narration.” (This episode was
chosen as Vimeo’s Staff Pick of the Week.)
And for his finale this week, Gelderblom is pulling out all the stops. “Brace yourself for the ultimate showdown between good and evil,” he warns. “God vs. Satan,” coming Tuesday, promises a truly epic mash-up, one which, according to the director, is compiled from 24 different films to construct a spectacular clash between Our Lord and Savior and the Prince of Darkness. Expect shock and awe, and maybe even a little controversy. As Gelderblom says, “It won’t be a friendly confrontation.”
While you wait for “God Vs. Satan,” you can catch up with all the previous episodes of Pretty Messed Up at Film Scalpel.
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